Friday, November 18, 2011
NO TWILIGHT SLUMP! Breaking Dawn Surging To $70 Million Friday Including $30.2M Midnights For $135M Weekend
FRIDAY 5 PM, 4TH UPDATE: Summit Entertainmentsources tell me that Breaking Dawn Part 1 is softening slightly tonight for a $70 million opening day. So now this fourth Twilight Saga featureis targeting $135M for its debut weekend. That will be the 2nd biggest weekend debut since the studio began making Stephenie Meyer’s vampire romance novels into films — behind only the Twilight sequel New Moon‘s $142.8M. That’s about halfway between what Summit lowballed and what rival studios highballed Breaking Dawn‘sgrosseswould be. Stay tuned for more updates… FRIDAY 2:30 PM, 3RD UPDATE: Summit Entertainment’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 is shattering Hollywood’s box office slump today. My sources say this fourth film version of Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight Saga vampire novels is looking at opening to $72+ million in North American grosses, consisting of $42+M for matinee and evening screenings in 4,061 theaters, plus $30.25M for 12:01 PMpost-midnight showings in 3,521 locations. Right now Breaking Dawn may wind up with the franchise best one-day and Friday opening, surging pastTwilight‘s $36M, New Moon‘s $72.7M, and Eclipse‘s $68.5M. Stay tuned for more updates. FRIDAY 9:30 AM, 2ND UPDATE: Critics may be ravaging Summit Entertainment’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 but the fans are loving it. Overnight, thefilm version of the Stephenie Meyer novelmade$30.25M from 12:01 AM post-midnight showingsin a whopping 3,521 theaters. That’s a best for the Twilight Saga franchise (Twilight made 7.5M whichset a record at that time, New Moon $26.3M, and Eclipse $30.1M.) But it alsosets the #2 all-time midnights record behind Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2. FRIDAY 7 AM UPDATE: Here we go again. Not only is Summit Entertainment’sBreaking Dawn Part 1 helping surge the North American box office today after a months-lasting slump. But it’s also a big shot in the arm to international ticket sales. The Twilight Saga film franchise’s fourth installmentrolled out after 12:01 AM into a whopping 3,251 domestic theaters and then expanded into 4,061 theaters by midday. And the film is off to a great start internationally as it started its roll outin 54 markets around the globe with Wednesday screenings from select territories totalling $8.9 million with many more countries, data and their grosses to come over the coming days. I’velearned that an internal Summit Entertainment estimate puts this weekend’s domestic opening of Breaking Dawn Part 1 at $110 million to $125 million. That will be the 2nd biggest weekend debut since the studio began making Stephenie Meyer’s vampire romance novels into films — behind only the Twilight sequel New Moon. However,rival studios think Summit is lowballing and expect Breaking Dawn to debut to $142+M. And remember this is a female-driven 2D movie. It’s the 3D fanboy-driven movies that have been so hurt by slumping box office of late. Since the franchise began, Twilight opened domestically to $69.6M in 2008, New Moon to $142.8M in 2009, Eclipse to $64.8M in 2010. Summitprojected in an investor prospectus obtained by every showbiz media outlet that it would make $228 profit from Breaking Dawn,and that the final back to back films in the franchise would generate more than $1.2 billion in revenues and $447 million in profits for the studio and its investors. Yowza! Also rolling out this weekend into 3,606 theaters, with 2,800 3D screens,is Warner Bros family fare Happy Feet Two. The sequel also from director George Miller is releasing on the anniversary of the original, which grossed$41.5M in 2D on November 17 of 2006. “This Happy Feet Two feels like it will have to work to get to that figure despite being in 3D,” a rival studio exec tells me. Hollywood expects a weekend opening in the high $30sM which is good enough in these slumping times. “The strong schedule offamily films this past summer gave us an ideal launch for the campaign, startingwith a teaser trailer on Kung Fu Panda on Memorial Day weekend, and playingthrough on films ranging from Harry Potter to Smurfs, with the main trailerdebuting in the fall, culminating with a placement on Puss In Boots,” a Warner Bros exec tells me. Already, domestic pre-sales show thatBreaking Dawn Part 1 hasjumped onto MovieTickets.com’s highest advance seller list, ranking 5th among the Top 5 — ahead of The Twilight Saga’s last installment Eclipse but behind Harry PotterAnd The Deathly Hallows Part 1. In anticipation of the increased sales for Breaking Dawn‘s release,MovieTickets.com said it grew its theatre chain group count to 244 this week, and now sells tickets for over 17,400 movie screens.) Joel Cohen, CEO of MovieTickets.com, stated, The success of The Twilight Saga and the trends we saw from advance ticket sales of the most recent film is phenomenal. The fans who have supported this franchise from the beginning show no signs of walking away from what we know will continue to be a record-breaking movie going event.The net production budget for Breaking Dawn Part 1, after tax rebates and such,is $110 million. Costs were held down because parts 1 and 2 were made back-to-back by Summit. But the director of both pictures,Bill Condon,is not receiving anywhere near the generally good reviews of the previous Twilight Saga movies. Overseas, the Twilight Saga films have grossed over $1 billion coming into this latest release. Twilight grossed $200M, New Moon more than doubled its predecessor with $416M, and Eclipse is just shy of crossing the $400M mark. The breakdown of territories releasing this weekend is as follows: Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, Argentina, Bahrain, Bolivia, Chile, CIS, Croatia, Czech, Denmark, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Lebanon, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Peru, Portugal, Qatar, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, UAE, Ukraine, Aruba, Brazil, Bulgaria, Colombia, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Taiwan, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, West Indies, UK. Germany releases on November 24th, South Korea on December 1st, and Japan on February 25th. Chronologically,the international rollout started Wednesday withBelgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland. Thursday withAustralia, Argentina, Bahrain, Bolivia, Chile, CIS, Croatia, Czech, Denmark, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Lebanon, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Peru, Portugal, Qatar, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, UAE, Ukraine. Friday withAruba, Brazil, Bulgaria, Colombia, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Taiwan, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, West Indies, UK as well as Canada and the U.S. (Previous: YIKES! Twilight Fans Already Lining Up For Breaking Dawn Premiere) On Wednesday,Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened #1 in France grossing $3.83M for its opening day.The film dethroned the highly popular French comedy Intouchables ahead also of the hugely popular Tintin 3D. It is the third highest opening result for this year in France.Summit said the film is performing very well across the country in all provinces, and first screenings at the Le Grand Rex theater in Paris was sold out. In Australia,midnight screenings werehugewith$1.27M. In Italy,it opened #1withbox office of $2.3M. In Belgium,it made$786K which was63.7% of all the Wednesday film business in that country.Breaking Dawn Part 1 dethroned hometown boy Tintin 3D. This is especially notable considering the fact that, unlike Eclipses opening, it was not during a summer or holiday period. In Sweden, the film reported box office of$757K.